Hello everyone! I'm Marco Vassallo, and today I want to delve into the two formats involved in this weekend's online competitive play, analyzing the meta and offering some ideas on the metagame I expect.
Let's start with Standard (BO3 Qualifier on ARENA from 02/06 and Qualifier Showcase on MTGO on 02/07)
For Standard, we're coming off an extremely interesting Pro Tour, where the most played deck, UGx Cub (from now on, Cub.dek), performed "poorly" with a mere 45% win rate. Meanwhile, decks based on Sunderflock and strategies optimized against Cub.dek shone, for example, by playing many copies of Harvester of Misery or by bringing decks like Landfall that seek explosive finishes with Harmonizer and Trample effects. The big winner of this Pro Tour: the synergy between Superior Spider-Man and Deceit.
I refer you to my YouTube video for a detailed analysis of the Pro Tour stats.
That said, I think that at least for this week, intimidated by the meta, many players will not bring Cub-plan decks for fear of playing against the Pro Tour's winning metagame. On the other hand, I expect decks with strong plans like Elementals will need to revise their main 60, perhaps moving Sunderflock and similar cards to the sideboard: often, against tier 1.5 decks like Lesson, Jeskai Control, and Elementals, it's a blank card.
by Marco Camilluzzi
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $632.45
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (30)
4 x
Ashling, Rekindled // Ashling, Rimebound
$1.10
3 x
Roaming Throne
$36.52
2 x
Quantum Riddler
$44.39
2 x
Superior Spider-Man
$2.60
Instant (6)
3 x
Ashling's Command
$0.29
Land (24)
4 x
Cavern of Souls
$40.52
4 x
Eclipsed Realms
$0.86
3 x
Spirebluff Canal
$5.10
1 x
Botanical Sanctum
$1.15
1 x
Cori Mountain Monastery
$1.48
1 x
Restless Vinestalk
$0.31
Sideboard (15)
3 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
2 x
Chomping Changeling
$0.45
1 x
Disdainful Stroke
$0.11
Along with "revised Elementals," I find Dimir Excruciator to be an excellent choice for the weekend: a very strong plan with a combo and several power plays. Here too, I think there's a need to revise the main deck structure, moving at least 1 or 2 copies of Harvester of Misery to the sideboard.
Dimir Excruciator
Dimir Excruciator
by Christoffer Larsen
by Christoffer Larsen
info
The listed prices are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value: from $342.18
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (14)
- 4 × Deceit
- 4 × Superior Spider-Man
- 3 × Doomsday Excruciator
- 3 × Harvester of Misery
Instant (8)
- 4 × Requiting Hex
- 3 × Bitter Triumph
- 1 × Archenemy's Charm
Sorcery (12)
- 3 × Insatiable Avarice
- 3 × Stock Up
- 2 × Deadly Cover-Up
- 2 × Intimidation Tactics
- 2 × Winternight Stories
Land (26)
- 11 × Swamp
- 4 × Gloomlake Verge
- 4 × Restless Reef
- 4 × Watery Grave
- 2 × Multiversal Passage
- 1 × Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
- 4 × Duress
- 3 × Quantum Riddler
- 2 × Shoot the Sheriff
- 2 × Soul-Guide Lantern
- 2 × Torpor Orb
- 1 × Cruelclaw's Heist
- 1 × Negate
Finally, I recommend a newly revised version of UB Kaito, where I would increase the number of Restless Reef to avoid losing to Doomsday Excruciator.
Dimir Midrange
by Petr Sochůrek
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $216.91
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (23)
4 x
Deep-Cavern Bat
$0.11
4 x
Floodpits Drowner
$0.34
4 x
Tishana's Tidebinder
$2.54
3 x
Enduring Curiosity
$6.86
2 x
Cecil, Dark Knight // Cecil, Redeemed Paladin
$0.61
1 x
Preacher of the Schism
$1.10
Planeswalker (4)
4 x
Kaito, Bane of Nightmares
$10.44
Instant (8)
2 x
Shoot the Sheriff
$0.34
1 x
Phantom Interference
$0.13
Land (25)
4 x
Gloomlake Verge
$9.15
2 x
Multiversal Passage
$8.02
2 x
Soulstone Sanctuary
$0.79
Sideboard (15)
2 x
Disdainful Stroke
$0.11
2 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
1 x
Day of Black Sun
$1.03
1 x
Essence Scatter
$0.11
1 x
Strategic Betrayal
$0.41
1 x
The Unagi of Kyoshi Island
$1.67
1 x
Tragic Trajectory
$0.21
I advise against choosing Cub.dek or similar out of fear of still encountering decks highly tuned against this matchup, but if you want to play it anyway, I recommend Guglielmo Lupi's list. I think this 5c Cub line is an excellent choice to give the deck other lines of play beyond those that strictly require Badgermole Cub.
by Guglielmo Lupi
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $769.34
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (30)
4 x
Badgermole Cub
$60.46
4 x
Gene Pollinator
$0.17
4 x
Quantum Riddler
$44.39
3 x
Formidable Speaker
$10.05
2 x
Spider Manifestation
$0.11
1 x
Brightglass Gearhulk
$4.49
1 x
Champion of the Weird
$0.22
1 x
Craterhoof Behemoth
$13.92
1 x
Explosive Prodigy
$0.11
1 x
Keen-Eyed Curator
$1.85
1 x
Superior Spider-Man
$2.60
Sorcery (4)
4 x
Nature's Rhythm
$5.65
Enchantment (3)
2 x
Shimmerwilds Growth
$0.11
Artifact (1)
1 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
Land (22)
4 x
Multiversal Passage
$8.02
2 x
Botanical Sanctum
$1.15
Sideboard (15)
2 x
Oko, Lorwyn Liege // Oko, Shadowmoor Scion
$0.94
2 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
1 x
Disdainful Stroke
$0.11
1 x
Doorkeeper Thrull
$0.95
1 x
Insidious Fungus
$0.45
1 x
Meltstrider's Resolve
$0.21
1 x
Shimmerwilds Growth
$0.11
Decks like Jeskai Control and similar are also not happy with a metagame where the presence of Badgermole Cub is reduced in favor of an increased presence of Deceit, but among all, I prefer Marco Belacca's choices, aiming to frame Jeskai Control as a solid deck with several 4x cards, central cards against Cub.dek like Ultima, and 4 copies of the deck's best card: Jeskai Revelation.
by Marco Belacca
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $430.06
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (1)
1 x
The Unagi of Kyoshi Island
$1.67
Instant (23)
4 x
Consult the Star Charts
$4.07
4 x
Jeskai Revelation
$6.98
4 x
Lightning Helix
$0.16
Sorcery (8)
2 x
Day of Judgment
$0.86
Enchantment (2)
Land (26)
4 x
Floodfarm Verge
$10.05
4 x
Hallowed Fountain
$6.64
3 x
Sunbillow Verge
$10.96
2 x
Elegant Parlor
$10.44
2 x
Meticulous Archive
$12.85
2 x
Mistrise Village
$9.97
2 x
Riverpyre Verge
$22.58
1 x
Cori Mountain Monastery
$1.48
1 x
Thundering Falls
$19.32
Sideboard (15)
2 x
Beza, the Bounding Spring
$5.42
2 x
Tishana's Tidebinder
$2.54
2 x
Voice of Victory
$22.09
1 x
Day of Judgment
$0.86
1 x
Riverchurn Monument
$1.90
1 x
The Unagi of Kyoshi Island
$1.67
Finally, I expect two decks, Lesson and Reanimator, to perform well. The first proves to be extremely solid in setting up a game plan when the metagame is creature-based. Furthermore, I love this new version with 4 main deck counters, including Three Steps Ahead, which allows for unique flexibility as a play between a counter, a discard engine, and a copy of Monument to Endurance.
The second, despite performing poorly statistically, I expect it to recover well by working on builds where 1 or at most 2 Bringer of the Last Gift, 3/4 Formidable Speaker, and a good base of elementals are played.
Sultai Reanimator
Sultai Reanimator
by Marco Del Pivo
by Marco Del Pivo
info
The listed prices are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value: from $504.41
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (24)
- 4 × Deceit
- 4 × Oblivious Bookworm
- 4 × Superior Spider-Man
- 3 × Overlord of the Balemurk
- 2 × Ardyn, the Usurper
- 2 × Bringer of the Last Gift
- 2 × Formidable Speaker
- 1 × Glarb, Calamity's Augur
- 1 × Harvester of Misery
- 1 × Wistfulness
Instant (6)
- 4 × Requiting Hex
- 2 × Bitter Triumph
Enchantment (4)
- 4 × Awaken the Honored Dead
Land (25)
- 4 × Blooming Marsh
- 4 × Breeding Pool
- 4 × Overgrown Tomb
- 4 × Watery Grave
- 3 × Gloomlake Verge
- 2 × Cavern of Souls
- 2 × Undercity Sewers
- 1 × Swamp
- 1 × Wastewood Verge
Sideboard (15)
- 2 × Duress
- 2 × Intimidation Tactics
- 2 × Torpor Orb
- 2 × Zero Point Ballad
- 1 × Bitter Triumph
- 1 × Ghost Vacuum
- 1 × Glarb, Calamity's Augur
- 1 × Oko, Lorwyn Liege
- 1 × Quantum Riddler
- 1 × Soul-Guide Lantern
- 1 × Wistfulness
Izzet Lessons
by Francisco Sánchez
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $421.15
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (4)
Instant (22)
4 x
Abandon Attachments
$0.50
4 x
Accumulate Wisdom
$0.41
4 x
Combustion Technique
$0.32
4 x
Firebending Lesson
$0.18
2 x
It'll Quench Ya!
$0.14
2 x
Three Steps Ahead
$6.59
Sorcery (3)
3 x
Iroh's Demonstration
$0.28
Enchantment (4)
4 x
Artist's Talent
$6.35
Artifact (5)
4 x
Monument to Endurance
$21.00
1 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
Land (22)
4 x
Riverpyre Verge
$22.58
4 x
Spirebluff Canal
$5.10
1 x
Multiversal Passage
$8.02
Sideboard (15)
2 x
Quantum Riddler
$44.39
2 x
Ral, Crackling Wit
$15.18
2 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
1 x
Broadside Barrage
$0.15
I personally think I will play an Elementals list very similar to Adriano Moscato's in one of the recent Challenges, moving at least 2 Sunderflock to the sideboard in favor of 2 Spider-Sense, because I see the counter as a more impactful card in direct matchups against Dimir Excruciator, Mirror Match, and Jeskai Control.
Temur Elementals
Temur Elementals
by Adriano Moscato
by Adriano Moscato
info
The listed prices are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value: from $610.11
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (27)
- 4 × Ashling, Rekindled
- 4 × Flamebraider
- 4 × Roaming Throne
- 4 × Sunderflock
- 4 × Vibrance
- 4 × Wistfulness
- 3 × Deceit
Instant (5)
- 3 × Bounce Off
- 2 × Ashling's Command
Land (25)
- 4 × Cavern of Souls
- 4 × Secluded Courtyard
- 4 × Starting Town
- 4 × Steam Vents
- 3 × Breeding Pool
- 1 × Cori Mountain Monastery
- 1 × Eclipsed Realms
- 1 × Island
- 1 × Pit of Offerings
- 1 × Spirebluff Canal
- 1 × Thundering Falls
Sideboard (15)
- 3 × Pyroclasm
- 3 × Spell Snare
- 2 × Sear
- 1 × Deceit
- 1 × Disdainful Stroke
- 1 × Pit of Offerings
- 1 × Soul-Guide Lantern
- 1 × Soul-Guide Lantern
- 1 × Spider-Sense
- 1 × The Unagi of Kyoshi Island
VINTAGE
Let's now analyze the format opposite to Standard, moving on to the preparation for Sunday's showcase; we're talking about Vintage. The metagame is quite stagnant, with continuous cycles between the trio of Mono W Initiative, Raker Shops, and Lurrus Control decks.
For those more accustomed to the format, I suggest not straying too far from Lurrus; it is widely the most solid deck with the best plays.
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $48,850.89
Maindeck, 61 cards
Creature (11)
4 x
Orcish Bowmasters
$34.52
2 x
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
$0.33
1 x
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
$1.04
Instant (18)
4 x
Swords to Plowshares
$1.18
3 x
Force of Negation
$55.60
1 x
Ancestral Recall
$3,100.63
1 x
Dig Through Time
$0.19
Sorcery (7)
2 x
Lórien Revealed
$4.11
1 x
Timetwister
$3,595.63
1 x
Treasure Cruise
$0.16
Enchantment (1)
Artifact (6)
1 x
Black Lotus
$16,287.83
1 x
Mox Sapphire
$3,400.63
1 x
Nihil Spellbomb
$3.51
Land (18)
3 x
Underground Sea
$600.63
2 x
Polluted Delta
$19.40
1 x
Flooded Strand
$17.79
1 x
Misty Rainforest
$25.90
Sideboard (15)
3 x
Containment Priest
$0.48
2 x
Consign to Memory
$4.62
1 x
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
$1.04
1 x
Nihil Spellbomb
$3.51
1 x
Seal of Cleansing
$0.14
1 x
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
$3,236.44
For those who want to play the format as a "novice," just to use their MTGO Qualifier Points, I suggest focusing on Mono W Initiative, a very stock deck that plays well with its opening hand.
Mono White Initiative
by AFX
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $36,747.09
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (28)
4 x
Anointed Peacekeeper
$0.12
4 x
Archon of Emeria
$1.50
4 x
Chancellor of the Annex
$1.88
4 x
Clarion Conqueror
$2.08
4 x
Seasoned Dungeoneer
$5.71
4 x
White Plume Adventurer
$1.93
4 x
Witch Enchanter // Witch-Blessed Meadow
$4.97
Instant (1)
1 x
Swords to Plowshares
$1.18
Artifact (15)
1 x
Black Lotus
$16,287.83
1 x
Mox Emerald
$1,995.63
1 x
Mox Sapphire
$3,400.63
Land (16)
4 x
Cavern of Souls
$40.52
Sideboard (15)
4 x
Leyline of the Void
$0.43
3 x
Swords to Plowshares
$1.18
2 x
Archon of Absolution
$0.13
2 x
Containment Priest
$0.48
I advise against decks like Underworld Breach unless you are extremely experienced with P9 formats, precisely because of its general complexity and difficulty in managing a deck like Esper Lurrus (too many answers, really).
However, I leave the list for the most daring:
by MyPotatoes
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $46,665.47
Maindeck, 61 cards
Creature (1)
1 x
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
$1.04
Instant (22)
1 x
Ancestral Recall
$3,100.63
1 x
Dig Through Time
$0.19
1 x
Force of Negation
$55.60
Sorcery (12)
4 x
Lórien Revealed
$4.11
1 x
Merchant Scroll
$5.10
Enchantment (2)
2 x
Underworld Breach
$7.09
Artifact (10)
1 x
Black Lotus
$16,287.83
1 x
Mox Emerald
$1,995.63
1 x
Mox Sapphire
$3,400.63
Land (14)
2 x
Misty Rainforest
$25.90
2 x
Underground Sea
$600.63
2 x
Volcanic Island
$495.59
1 x
Flooded Strand
$17.79
1 x
Polluted Delta
$19.40
1 x
Tolarian Academy
$65.63
1 x
Undercity Sewers
$11.25
1 x
Volcanic Island
$495.59
Sideboard (15)
4 x
Soul-Guide Lantern
$0.11
3 x
Consign to Memory
$4.62
2 x
Unable to Scream
$0.23
1 x
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
$1.04
1 x
Price of Freedom
$0.40
1 x
Red Elemental Blast
$4.26
Personally, I think I will play a Storm list; I am still undecided whether with or without a possible Tinker plan in favor of Lurrus, but I think I am heading in that direction.
Ub Storm
info
Prices shown are updated frequently and may vary.
Deck value:
from $54,571.83
Maindeck, 60 cards
Creature (4)
4 x
Orcish Bowmasters
$34.52
Instant (19)
4 x
Paradoxical Outcome
$0.49
1 x
Ancestral Recall
$3,100.63
1 x
Dig Through Time
$0.19
1 x
Force of Negation
$55.60
Sorcery (11)
4 x
Lórien Revealed
$4.11
1 x
Merchant Scroll
$5.10
1 x
Tendrils of Agony
$0.29
1 x
Timetwister
$3,595.63
1 x
Yawgmoth's Will
$100.64
Enchantment (2)
Artifact (11)
1 x
Black Lotus
$16,287.83
1 x
Mox Emerald
$1,995.63
1 x
Mox Sapphire
$3,400.63
Land (13)
4 x
Polluted Delta
$19.40
4 x
Underground Sea
$600.63
1 x
Tolarian Academy
$65.63
Sideboard (15)
2 x
Hurkyl's Recall
$1.29
2 x
Nihil Spellbomb
$3.51
1 x
Consign to Memory
$4.62
1 x
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
$1.04
1 x
Momentum Breaker
$0.39
1 x
Mystical Dispute
$0.58
1 x
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
$3,236.44
In summary, I expect a Standard with a top 8 full of perfectly balanced meta-called lists, while I expect a Vintage that is more stagnant and stable on the usual archetypes, where nothing needs to be improvised.
Good luck with your qualifiers, everyone!
