1|Evolving Win Rate
The week of February 23rd to March 1st, 2026, saw shifting data. The pro-game of major tournaments surprised us, revealing truths that the field's distribution hasn't yet accepted. After the Arena Championship 11 on February 21st-22nd, and considering tournaments like the United States Regional Championship and the Canada’s Regional Championship, the oracle's mists showed us a meta whose evolution was partly misunderstood. Decks with a Match Win Rate equal to or greater than 50% include Izzet (U/R) Lessons, MonoG Landfall, Simic (U/G) Rhythm, Dimir (U/B) Midrange, Azorius (U/W) Tempo, Izzet (U/R) Spellementals, Izzet (U/R) Elementals, Izzet (U/R) Prowess, Boros (W/R) Dragons, Bant (U/W/G) Airbanding, Temur (U/G/R) Harmonizer, and Gruul (R/G) Harmonizer. Some names aren't new, of course, but there's also a lot that hasn't received due reverence. The deck with the highest WR was Izzet (U/R) Prowess, significantly above the more acclaimed Izzet (U/R) Lessons and MonoG Landfall. Azorius (U/W) Tempo was over-represented compared to expectations and performed decently. Boros (W/R) Dragons and Gruul (R/G) Harmonizer were very under-represented, yet their WR percentage proved to be higher than decks like Dimir (U/B) Excruciator or Sultai (U/B/G) Reanimator. Clearly, the data must be interpreted in light of sideboard choices, but this interpretation doesn't fully explain the good performances. It's pleasing to see that all these emerging decks were mentioned in previous editions of this column as likely significant brews. However, there was a margin of error: Gruul (R/G) Harmonizer was never considered promising, and a slightly better performance was expected from Rakdos (B/R) Monument. Not that the latter was expected to go far, but I would have anticipated a general Win Rate percentage around 48% (in line with MonoR or Sultai (U/B/G) Reanimator). Instead, it stopped at just 43%.
2|New Promises
Like a true street bully, Izzet (U/R) Prowess finished with the best result: a solid 60% WR, a significant gap from the second-place MonoG Landfall, which stopped at 55.8%. However, it seems to have an unfavorable matchup against Izzet (U/R) Spellementals. Both decks lean heavily on their spell suite for proactive play, but the threats from the latter are harder for the former to counter. Essentially, Izzet (U/R) Prowess can't deny Izzet (U/R) Spellementals the consistent advantage that a tempo deck needs.
3|TMNT Prerelease
Dear prerelease Friday, what will you bestow upon us? From Friday, February 27th, to Sunday, March 1st, you can visit your favorite WPN Stores and participate in the prerelease of Magic: The Gathering – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (hereafter TMNT). What will enter our favorite rotating format? Playing with the future is always as satisfying as it is inadvisable. So we'll do it. The new classes are worth keeping an eye on. The Bloomburrow edition showed us that this type of permanent can greatly influence the format and steer it toward new avenues. Leader's Talent seems to have a good affinity with the previous Innkeeper's Talent. Does Machines and Cool but Rude are good engines for direct and indirect card advantage, in addition to other effects (opponent's life total erosion, specific recursion, etc.). Wingnut, Bat on the Belfry, I believe, is a good boost for RDW or other aggressive strategies that can't stop their race without falling behind on tempo. The Sneak ability seems interesting at times. It's not wonderful, in this writer's opinion, but if supported by a truly synergistic card in a particular strategy, it could see a lot of play. A good example could be Leonardo, Big Brother.
4|Market Updates
Our column closes with the bi-weekly update on Standard prices. In the article "Standard. Ban List, Monument to Endurance, and Format Costs," which you can find for free on this site, I proposed a solid theoretical basis for calculating an index capable of constantly tracking the general cost of the format. I refer you to that reading for greater clarity. There, I explain the mathematical basis used. From now on, I will call this creation of mine the Standard MOLE Index. At this halfway point, the field distribution compared across multiple meta-tracking databases yielded an analysis sample of 11 decks (U/B Excruciator, MonoG Landfall, U/R Lessons, U/B Midrange, U/R Prowess, U/R Spellementals, U/W Tempo, U/W/R Control, MonoR, U/G Ouroboroid, W/R Dragons). The arithmetic mean is €468.71, the resistant median stands at €443.17, the geometric mean flexes to €546.08, with the lower outlier being Izzet (U/R) Spellementals and the upper outlier being Simic (U/G) Ouroboroid. We can therefore note that the cost of Standard has decreased by an average of €38.23; the arithmetic mean and the resistant median are closer (demonstrating a more symmetrical deck price distribution than before), and consequently, the geometric mean also drops. The geometric mean of the other formats taken for comparison remains insensitive to time.
